FORECASTING VIETNAM'S SHRIMP EXPORTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE IN 2020

In the first half of 2019, shrimp production increased, raw shrimp prices decreased, while shrimp inventories in high markets, the supply of shrimp from other countries also increased, resulting in lower prices of imported shrimp in markets compared to last year, so shrimp exports continued the downward trend from 2018. Meanwhile, China tightened quality control, traceability at the border and unpredictable developments of the US trade war - Trung. Shrimp exports decreased mainly due to poor first half export results. In the second half of the year, shrimp exports recovered gradually thanks to the increase in raw shrimp prices and export.

The EU is Vietnam's largest shrimp import market, accounting for 20.5% of Vietnam's total shrimp export value. In 2019, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the EU market reached 689.8 million USD, down 17.7% compared to 2018.

Vietnam's shrimp exports to the EU in 2019 decreased compared to 2018, but the EVFTA Agreement, which is expected to come into force in 2020, can create expectations for Vietnam's shrimp exports to this market in 2020.

According to EVFTA, the import tax for most raw shrimp (fresh, frozen, chilled) imported into the EU will be reduced from the basic tax rate of 12-20% to 0% right after the agreement comes into effect, and the import tax of processed shrimp will be 0% after 7 years since the agreement comes into effect.

The US ranked second in importing Vietnamese shrimp, accounting for 19.4%. In 2019, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US market reached 653.9 million USD, up 2.5% compared to 2018.

From the beginning of 2019, although the growth was not high, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US maintained a stable export value compared to 2018. Demand for US shrimp imports from Vietnam in the end of 2019 was more positive thanks to the US tending to reduce imports from India, Thailand and sharply reduce imports from China.

In August 2019, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the final results of the 13th administrative review (POR 13) on Vietnam's anti-dumping duty on shrimp to the US with 31 enterprises enjoying 0% tax rate. This information helps create more motivation for Vietnamese shrimp exporting enterprises to the US.

US-China trade tensions have led the US to raise tariffs of 25% on 250 billion goods imported from China, including shrimp products. China's shrimp exports to the US are more and more difficult, creating opportunities for Chinese competitors in the US market including Vietnam. Shrimp powder products exported from Vietnam to the US compete better with China in the US market. In the first 10 months of 2019, exporting powdered shrimp from Vietnam to the US reached 9,045 tons, worth US $ 64.9 million, up 52% in volume and 49% in value compared to the same period in 2018. Export of powdered shrimp from China to the US reached 16,113 tons, worth US $ 85.3 million, down 31% in volume and down 38% in value over the same period in 2018.

Vietnam's shrimp exports to Japan in 2019 reached over 618.6 million USD, down 3.3% compared to 2018. In the structure of shrimp exports to Japan, whiteleg shrimp accounted for 58%, black tiger shrimp 23.4% and sea shrimp 18.7%.

2020 Tokyo Olympics will promote seafood consumption in Japan, especially shrimp, so the demand for shrimp is expected to increase, creating opportunities for shrimp exporters in the world.

Shrimp exports in 2020 are expected to be more favorable compared to 2019. The anti-dumping tax in the US market has reached 0%. The EVFTA Agreement, likely to come into force in June 2020, will help boost shrimp export growth to the European market thanks to the tax advantage. For the Chinese market, currently 75-80% of Vietnam's seafood exports have been officially exported, which is an important factor helping the recovery and growth of shrimp exports to this market in the near future.

Source: http://vasep.com.vn/